Missouri’s postseason hopes took a major upswing this past weekend after the Tigers (24–21, 7–14 SEC) completed a sweep of visiting Tennessee (24–21, 6–15 SEC). Mizzou entered the weekend series in dead last in the conference and on the outside of the Southeastern Conference Tournament picture. The bottom two teams in the conference fail to qualify for the tournament, which will take place May 24–29 at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium in Hoover, Alabama.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, their path to NCAA regionals is a difficult one. It would likely require them to win eight of their final nine conference games plus a pair of wins in the SEC Tournament. However, if the Tigers can get to Hoover with a fresh 1-2 punch of sophomore Tanner Houck and redshirt senior Reggie McClain, things could get interesting in a hurry.
They’ll have to take it one step at a time, but here is the Tigers’ roadmap to the postseason:
** Mizzou must avoid being swept for the remainder of its SEC schedule **
Currently, the Tigers sit one game ahead of Tennessee in the SEC standings. That lead essentially is doubled, however, since Mizzou owns the tiebreaker over the Volunteers. That puts them in a good spot to avoid the basement of the conference.
With series remaining against No. 4 Mississippi State (30–14–1, 12–9 SEC) and Kentucky (27–17, 11–10 SEC), there is plenty of room for the Tigers to drop back in the standings.
To avoid doing so, Mizzou must make sure it does not get swept in the home stretch. Their next conference series on the road against Mississippi State will be critical, and it is the most likely spot to be swept. The Bulldogs have swept only one home series against Oregon this season and lost just one home series in 2016, a sweep from No. 2 Texas A&M.
**The Tigers must come away with a series win over Georgia**
Around the SEC this past weekend, a lot of results went in Mizzou’s favor. First and foremost, the Tigers took care of their own business against Tennessee, catapulting them out of the basement of the SEC Eastern Division. On top of that, Sunday losses by Arkansas, Auburn and Georgia moved the Tigers from 14th (last place) to 10th in the conference.
Since Mizzou already holds the tiebreakers over Arkansas and Auburn, Georgia’s loss was the most significant because the two teams have yet to meet this season. The Tigers and Bulldogs will face one another at Taylor Stadium for a three-game weekend series, beginning at 6 p.m. on Friday, May 13. At the moment, both teams have a 7–14 conference record.
The structure of the SEC Tournament dictates that the bottom two teams in the conference fail to qualify. However, this does not necessarily mean the last place teams in each division. If two teams from either division finish with the two worst records in the conference, those are the two teams that will miss out.
Winning the series against Georgia would go a long way to helping Mizzou qualify for the conference tournament. It would give the Tigers tiebreakers over all of the other four teams competing for the final spots in Hoover.
**Added bonus: Arkansas and Auburn finish below or even with Mizzou in their conference records**
Although Mizzou is in a good spot to finish ahead of Tennessee and controls its own destiny against Georgia, their tournament outlook isn’t clear-cut.
If the Tigers were to drop the series at home against Georgia, it wouldn’t mark the end of the season. Added to the Tigers’ list of scoreboard-watching would be Arkansas and Auburn, both of whom are level with Mizzou with 7–14 marks in conference.
Mizzou picked up key series victories over Arkansas and Auburn in April to help put it back in the conference tournament picture. Taking two of three on the road from then-No. 15 Arkansas is still arguably the Tigers’ most notable positive this season.
Fortunately for the Tigers, they played a front-loaded SEC slate. The teams they are in competition with, including Arkansas and Auburn, are getting into the meat of their schedule at the most critical point in the season. Auburn enters the month of May with series against No. 4 Mississippi State and No. 7 Vanderbilt still on its schedule. Meanwhile, Arkansas doesn’t have it much easier with series against Mississippi State and No. 13 LSU still to come.
If both Arkansas and Auburn finish even with or below Mizzou in the SEC, the Tigers will qualify for the conference tournament, regardless of what happens against Georgia.
_Edited by Peter Baugh | pbaugh@themaneater.com_