Bobby Lee is a freshman journalism major at MU. He writes for The Maneater about political affairs, MU, the state of journalism and environmental topics. Ezra Bitterman is a freshman journalism major at MU. He is an opinion columnist who writes about elections and societal observations for The Maneater.
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“I promise you this—we will not just win Missouri; we will win the general election.”
Two weeks before the 2008 presidential election, then-candidate Barack Obama spoke in front of a booming 100,000-person crowd under the Gateway Arch.
He would win the presidency but failed to carry Missouri by 3,903 votes, or 0.13% of all votes cast. Missouri slipped little by little out of Democrats’ hands continuing with President Joe Biden’s 15.39% loss in 2020. Inside that 15% change is a change in well-being for many of the rural and suburban voters that allowed Obama to get so close.
This massive shift in voting alignment indicates the general conservative shift of the state and makes Democrats ask a big question: Can a Democrat win a statewide race in Missouri?
Democrats likely won’t win the 2022 Missouri Senate election because of the deeply entrenched conservative views throughout the state. However, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try. A new strategy that involves meaningful efforts in suburban and rural communities can establish a new liberal voice in the state and set Democrats up for success in the decades ahead.
Obama and other Democrats were able to make Missouri competitive because of their appeal to rural and suburban voters. However, that demographic has suffered in past years. Rural Americans have seen their towns dry up with urbanization, losing healthcare and economic opportunity. Since 2000, the population in America has only grown 3% in rural counties versus 13% in urban areas. Republicans harnessed this, targeting rural and suburban communities, promising their once-vibrant industries back. It worked, as Democrats have seen a five-point plunge in rural support. This also has to do with the fact that in recent years, Democratic candidates such as Hillary Clinton have avoided focusing on rural issues.
Democrats were once the party of the people and can be again. 2022 is the election to do it.
Democrats, even if they don’t win, have the ability to make a systemic change in their strategy for the state and start the path toward turning Missouri back into a battleground. These are strategies that could help Democrats win statewide elections in Missouri.
First, Democrats have the opportunity to change their messaging and voter base in the 2022 Senate election. Democrats need to turn out in cities and suburbs. While it is not a silver bullet for winning elections, utilizing a Stacey Abrams strategy of mass community organizing would only benefit Democrats and get more people to the polls. However, the rural counties cannot be forgotten, and Democrats need to realize that many of their policies would be incredibly popular in these areas if they advertised them.
Looking at the 2018 Texas Senate race, Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke was able to turn the state into a battleground by visiting every rural county and making his opinions known. Democrats need to visit rural counties again because, at the end of the day, both rural and urban counties care about the same issues: healthcare, good jobs, good education and the ability to live without economic hardship. Informing Missourians that the state could benefit from Democratic proposals such as cheaper healthcare, cheaper higher education and a higher minimum wage could start the multi-decade process of turning Missouri blue.
Additionally, there are a handful of outside circumstances that could benefit the Democrats in a statewide race.
For example, according to a conversation with MU political science professor Peverill Squire, college-educated suburban women could shift toward the Democrats based on the latest debates involving the legality of abortion. Professor Squire claimed that if Republicans go too far to the right based on the latest Supreme Court ruling about Texas, which made it even more difficult for women in Texas to get an abortion, suburban women could shift into voting blue more reliably.
Lastly, Democrats will likely face a controversial challenger. Eric Greitens, the former disgraced governor of Missouri, has currently been leading in all of the polls so far against other recognizable candidates. Greitens was forced to resign due to a felony charge of invasion of privacy that came from an encounter where he sexually assaulted and blackmailed his hairdresser. At the time of the scandal, a plurality of voters stated he should resign, a majority being women. One of Missouri’s senators, Josh Hawley, has also stirred outrage over his claims that the election was stolen and his sole dissent of the Asian American hate crime prevention bill. Democrats can use the controversy that Eric Greitens and Senator Hawley bring to the state to convince voters that Democrats are a safer option to vote for.
On that fateful Missouri day in 2008, a candidate of hope, love and change spoke to the people about a government for the people. Since then, Democrats have abandoned this ideal for the people of Missouri. It is time for Democrats to take back the mantle of the people’s party. Democrats must bring leadership back to this state.
The Maneater and its staff support equal access to voting and making voting as accessible as possible. We encourage all of our readers to donate to the American Civil Liberties Union and their new project, Let People Vote. The ACLU has been going to court for decades for the right to vote and there is no more important time than now to make the ideal that every vote is counted true. https://www.aclu.org
Edited by Sarah Rubinstein, srubinstein@themaneater.com