The 2022 midterm elections were a partial success for a Democratic Party that many expected to perform much worse. There is one big lesson still to be learned: Democratic Party leadership needs to support more progressive candidates.
Having won many key races, progressive Democrats have much to look forward to following the recent midterms. Most members of the Progressive Caucus in the house won their reelection campaigns. Incumbents from the Progressive Caucus did lose some reelections to fellow Democrats in the primaries but lost no seats to Republican candidates in the general election. Progressive candidates like Wiley Nickel, Nikki Budzinski and Andrea Salinas won open seats. In addition, progressive candidate Hillary Scholten won in Michigan’s 3rd district, historically red. Progressive Marcy Kaptur faced challenges in Ohio after her district was redrawn into what experts considered to be a “political toss-up,” but still held on. Other progressive victories included the election of Greg Casar to Texas’ 35th District and John Fetterman for Pennsylvania senator. Casar ran on an incredibly progressive platform, emphasizing criminal justice reform and workers’ rights. He won his district with 72.6% of the vote – a 7.2 percentage point increase from his predecessor Lloyd Doggett’s 2020 election.
Meanwhile, members of the House’s moderate New Democrat Coalition lost six races to Republican candidates. Arizona moderates Tom O’Halleran and Kirsten Engel both lost positions to Republicans. Moderate Elaine Luria also lost a close race in Virginia’s 2nd District. Finally, moderates in New York, like Laura Gillen and Sean Patrick Maloney, could not hold their positions following a redistricting map debacle.
Redistricting seems to be the cause of the losses, but some moderate Democratic voters argued that candidates ignored concerns over crime.
“A good night could have been a great night if NY Dems hadn’t screwed up redistricting and ignored voter concerns about crime and disorder,” political strategist Howard Wolfson tweeted.
Conservatives in New York ran ads regarding crime rates. Jon Reinish, former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., believes these ads played a large role in the election results. Reinish told The Hill that he believed the ads persuaded swing voters in suburban New York.
The crime narrative is largely a falsehood, but that hasn’t stopped voters from being duped. Pew Research found that 61% of voters said violent crime was a major issue heading into the midterms, but statistics from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the FBI do not show an increase in violent crime from 1993 to 2021.
It is difficult for a Democrat to win against a conservative on an issue like crime. To appease moderate Democrats, or those who believe the crime narrative, Democratic politicians would have to be more virulently pro-law enforcement. It is difficult to do this without alienating their younger voter base, who are more likely to support criminal justice reforms and are less likely to be worried about crime. Moderate Democrats cannot out right-wing the Republicans. Progressives, however, can beat Republicans on crime. Progressive wins for district attorney positions occurred in major progressive bastions as well as more red counties. This includes John Creuzot — who held his seat as Dallas County, Texas, district attorney — and Kimberly Graham — who won in Polk County, Iowa. Both candidates ran on criminal justice reform.
Moderate Democrats cannot win against strong Republican candidates. Take Missouri, for example. Missouri had many moderate House candidates in the state — like Bethany Mann, Jack Truman, Kristen Radaker-Sheafer — all lost by large margins. They never stood a chance. Why would conservatives or moderate Republicans vote for a Democrat whose positions are only marginally different from the Republicans they are running against? According to exit polls conducted nationally by Edison Research, 96% of Republican party members voted for Republican House candidates. No matter how moderate the Democrat may be, they statistically cannot sway enough Republicans to give them an edge. Yet the Democrats still run moderates.
The only somewhat close race from a red district came in Missouri’s 2nd District, where progressive Trish Gunby trailed by 11.9%. This is a large margin, but it could have been smaller if Gunby were given more party backing. She was left out to dry by a Democratic establishment that saw Missouri — and so many other states — as lost causes. Gunby received no funding from the Democratic Party, Democratic National Committee or Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, according to Open Secrets.
Perhaps a contributing factor to this has been the Democratic establishment’s hostility toward progressive candidates. This can be seen clearly in the primaries. In the 2022 primaries, there were many instances of Democratic leadership intentionally sinking progressive candidates. President Biden — perhaps the most prominent face of the current Democratic Party — made only three endorsements in the house elections, all for moderate incumbents facing primaries from progressives. Hakeem Jeffries, who will be the Democratic minority leader of the U.S. House in the coming year, has a political action committee hostile to progressives. The PAC, called Team Blue, aims to support incumbent candidates in the face of progressive opposition.
Maybe the most publicized example of Democratic leadership’s hostility to progressives was in Texas’ 28th District. In that primary, moderate incumbent Henry Cuellar ran against progressive Jessica Cisneros. Cuellar — a Democrat in opposition to abortion rights — was backed by party leadership including House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, House Democratic Caucus Chair Jeffries and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Opposition to progressive candidates and their policies is a futile strategy. Progressive policies are incredibly popular. Raising the federal minimum wage has garnered wide support in recent years. “Medicare for All” has found 55% support in polling by Politico and Morning Consult. The same study found 68% support overall for a “public option” for healthcare and 56% support from Republicans. Additionally, creating a federal government database to track all gun sales polls well with roughly 66% support overall, according to Pew Research. These policies are favored by voters, so it makes sense to run progressive candidates who support them.
Democrats need to run progressive candidates in primaries and support them. “Progressive-backed candidates” had a 56% win rate for seats without incumbents, according to FiveThirtyEight. If the Democratic leadership wants to win, it should strongly support progressive candidates running for open seats and in red districts. If Democratic voters want leadership to change, they should advocate for progressives locally. Voting progressive means that leadership has to acknowledge progressive popularity. Democratic leadership should stop opposing progressives in the primaries, fully fund candidates and not make any race an easy one for Republicans.
Edited by Molly Gibbs | mgibbs@themaneater.com
Copy edited by Grace Locke and Jacob Richey