The Republican primary process began in earnest earlier this year, although the first real votes won’t be cast until February next year. The current notable candidates are Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman. Despite the large field, Perry and Romney have emerged as the frontrunners so far. But the primary process in the United States allows parties to select their own candidates without input from the general population.
Historically, the Republican primaries have been decided by 20 to 25 million Americans, which is less than 20 percent of the number of people who will be voting in 2012. Due to this, the primary process risks alienating the general population and throwing the election to Barack Obama if Republicans pick a candidate too far to the right.
After a couple months of rumors, Rick Perry entered the race last month and immediately rose to the top of most polls. Perry is the current and longest-serving governor in Texas history, having been elected right after that other governor from Texas was elected President in 2000. Perry is a social and economic conservative. He criticizes the national government stepping into state issues, he is opposed to same-sex marriage, he criticizes human-caused climate change and, during this week’s debate, called Social Security a “Ponzi scheme” robbing from young people.
However, Perry is consistent with his support for states’ rights, and said New York was within its rights to legalize same-sex marriage earlier this year. Earlier this year, Perry organized “Days of Prayer” which caused controversy and has many concerned he might be too overtly religious to appeal to enough Americans.
Romney is a successful businessman and former governor of Massachusetts who was in the Republican primary in 2008 but lost to John McCain. Romney is, by most standards, more moderate than Perry, but has drifted toward more conservative positions on some social issues throughout the years. This has caused many social conservatives to be wary of Romney. The health insurance reform in Massachusetts while he was governor also worries conservatives, since it was used as a model for the national health insurance reform Obama pushed for. However, Romney is an economic conservative and has criticized Obama strongly about the economy. He has been successful in the business world. He organized the 2002 Salt Lake Olympics and balanced the Massachusetts budget, which support his economic credentials.
Assuming Perry and Romney remain the top two candidates, I believe the choice between the two could decide the election. Perry and Romney are similar enough on economic issues, but on social and other issues, Perry is further to the right than Romney. In an economic situation where social policy has taken a back seat, conservatives may have to settle for a candidate they don’t completely agree with in order to have a better chance of defeating President Barack Obama.