It might only be the middle of October, but I firmly believe I can pretty accurately predict the major nominations for this year’s Oscar ceremony. There is a new rule that states there can be anywhere from five to 10 Best Picture nominees this year. That rule might make predictions a little more difficult, but I still believe my predictions can be right on the money.

The Academy loves to mess with people’s expectations, and that’s why I think the front-runner to win the big prize this year is “The Artist,” a black-and-white silent film made in France. Reviews from the Cannes Film Festival said the movie is a funny, romantic crowd-pleaser and will even win over the most cynical of filmgoers.

Fighting for the win are two very conventional choices: Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse” and Stephen Daldry’s “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.” Both films are emotional dramas with a child at their cores. Either movie could prove to be a major player in the race.

I am predicting some major surprises in the acting categories. This year, I believe that an Olsen sister will be nominated for an Oscar. No, not Mary-Kate or Ashley, but their younger sister Elizabeth, who has received rave reviews for her dark cult thriller “Marcy Martha May Marlene.” Maybe she and Gary Oldman can star in a mash-up of their films called “Marcy Tinker Martha Tailor May Soldier Marlene Spy.”

Olsen will have to beat out the likes of Meryl Streep, Glenn Close and Viola Davis to win the prize, something that probably will never happen. My money is on Davis to take home the award; “The Help” was a major hit with both critics and audiences.

Expect teen girls to be shocked this year when “that girl from ‘The Secret Life of the American Teenager’” becomes a major contender to win Best Supporting Actress. Early reviews for “The Descendants” said she more than holds her own against co-star George Clooney.

Another surprise in the supporting actress category will be Melissa McCarthy for “Bridesmaids.” America is in love with the woman, and after coming off an Emmy win, she might be the first person to be nominated for having diarrhea in a sink.

The final upset nomination I’m predicting is Jonah Hill for “Moneyball.” Hill, while still funny, transforms himself into a fantastic dramatic actor, all while going toe-to-toe with Brad Pitt.

I could spend five more columns discussing my predictions in more depth. But below are my picks for the five biggest categories, in order of likelihood.

**Best Picture**

1. “The Artist”
2. “War Horse”
3. “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
4. “The Descendants”
5. “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
6. “J. Edgar”
7. “The Help”
8. “Moneyball”
9. “Midnight in Paris”
10. “The Tree of Life”

**Best Director**

1. Steven Spielberg – “War Horse”
2. Stephen Daldry – “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
3. Alexander Payne – “The Descendants”
4. Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”
5. Woody Allen – “Midnight in Paris”

**Best Actor**

1. George Clooney – “The Descendants”
2. Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”
3. Gary Oldman – “Tinker, Taylor, Solider, Spy”
4. Brad Pitt – “Moneyball”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – “J. Edgar”

**Best Actress**

1. Viola Davis – “The Help”
2. Michelle Williams – “My Week with Marilyn”
3. Glenn Close – “Albert Nobbs”
4. Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”
5. Elizabeth Olsen – “Martha Marcy May Marlene”

**Best Supporting Actor**

1. Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”
2. Armie Hammer – “J. Edgar”
3. Jonah Hill – “Moneyball”
4. Albert Brooks – “Drive”
5. Max Von Sydow – “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

**Best Supporting Actress**

1. Sandra Bullock – “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
2. Octavia Spencer – “The Help”
3. Melissa McCarthy – “Bridesmaids”
4. Shailene Woodley – “The Descendants”
5. Vanessa Redgrave – “Coriolanus”