Mitt Romney and his well-planned and even better funded campaign seemed like the inevitable nominee just a few days go. Having fared well in Iowa and walking through to a win in New Hampshire, it seemed with a win in the South Carolina primary the race to become the GOP nomination would be all but over.
Even former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich acknowledged this, saying, “If I don’t win the primary Saturday, we will probably nominate a moderate, and the odds are fairly high he will lose to Obama,” according to NPR.
Lucky for Speaker Gingrich the polls quickly turned in his favor. After two televised debates in South Carolina the former Speaker turned a huge deficit in the polls into a lead he carried though to a huge victory in the state. Gingrich receiving 40 percent of the vote to Romney’s 28 percent, Rick Santorum’s 17 percent, and Ron Paul’s 13 percent. He took what was inevitable into what could be a highly contested and fiery race.
The finish line to this race is the Republican Convention held in Tampa, Fla. in August. With this win for Gingrich the convention now has an off chance of being open. Which means the public won’t know the nomination until the delegates vote at the convention. Michael Steele, former Republican National Chairman, explains just how real this prospect is, saying, “It’s a real possibility right now I’d say it’s 50-50. The base wants its chance to have their say. They aren’t going to want it to end early, before they get their chance, which means that the process could go all the way to Tampa,” according to m.politicalwire.com.
The question is, why does it matter if the race carries all the way into August?
For Republicans the answer takes on two forms, both positive and negative. On the positive front it means more debates, more time, and hopefully a better understanding of the candidates. Allowing this race continue until August means more voters of more states will have their voices heard in the primaries. Which the Republicans hope will translate into selecting the best candidate and defeating President Barack Obama.
In a more negative view for the Republicans this means the bloodbath that is the political ads put out by the candidates and their ever supportive Super PACs will continue.
This is great news for the Democrats and Obama, who have already assumed the eventual nominee to be Romney. While the Democrats have focused their efforts on unhinging the well-oiled Romney campaign, Romney’s counterparts have been doing the same.
Watching recent debates and attack ads Democrats have to be considerably pleased. From seeing Gingrich and recent drop-out Rick Perry viciously attack Mitt Romney for his tenure at private investment firm Bain Capital calling him a “vulture capitalist,” to Rick Santorum continue to paint him as a flip-flopper and neo-conservative, and most recently watching everyone tear into Romney for being in the 15 percent tax bracket and not releasing his tax history, Romney’s taken a lot of heat. Biggest of all for Obama is the candidates continually berating each other each week on nationally televised debates.
The effects of the fierce scrutiny on Romney can’t be ignored either. Headed into South Carolina Romney had a decent lead in their polls. This was surprising since South Carolina is heavily conservative, and they tend to lean away from Romney. Then came the attack ads, the debates, the sharp decline in the polls, and his eventual loss.
Even with all the speculation, the chance of the nomination being a candidate other than Romney is still slim. Voters see him as electable, something they don’t find in Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum. Not to mention his past isn’t littered with ethics violations, like Speaker Gingrich. Still his campaign is the most organized and well-funded campaign, and is the only one experts say could go the distance in the race to beat Obama’s near $750 million re-election campaign, according to The National Journal.
The win of Newt Gingrich in South Carolina has blown open what was a closed case for Romney. It guarantees the race will last for at least a little while longer if not all the way to Florida in the fall. But the longer it lasts the more the attacks continue, and the more the real winner becomes the Obama campaign.
