In the wake of the growing caustic tension sparking in the South China and East China seas, the outlook of combat is increasingly more prominent and possible between rivals China and Japan.
Excluding their turbulent relationship, both nations claim ownership of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, which could bring the two countries onto the brink of war. Possible warfare only spells economic ruin for said countries and their allies.
The dispute centers on the possession and historical right of these outcrops of uninhabited shoals off the coast of Japan and China. Each country believes that they have the natural right to these islands — thus, conflict arises. This past summer has been a nautical dispute between China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines, causing friction in Asian diplomatic relations.
With growing nationalism in China and the crumbling economic reputation of Japan, each country feels that in order to protect its reputation, attaining these islands will bolster national pride and prestige. Don’t these conditions sound familiar?
Looking back through history, border disputes have been an impetus behind many wars. One of the most important was the Balkan powder keg, during which Russia and Germany both felt a strong inclination toward the Balkan states. Growing tension eventually broke with the assassination of an archduke. What will the deciding moment for Japan and China be?
Although this might seem like some little territorial tiff that Japan and China need to sort out on their own, the implications that could resound if Asian tensions do not lesson could be severe for economies worldwide. The U.S.’s own economy is so dependent on Chinese and Japanese goods that if one or the other goes down, God help us all.
Even Japan and China are intricately linked. Their economic progress stems from each other — part of the reason no actual combat has occurred. One can’t attack the other or claim the island for itself without setting off a disastrous economic domino effect. Even though [China’s overall foreign investment](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/29/opinion/japan-is-flexing-the-wrong-muscles.html?ref=territorialdisputes&_r=0) is declining, Japan runs a close second to the U.S.’s $14.7 billion investment with a $12.6 billion investment.
The U.S.’s economy is entwined with both nations’ economies. Regardless of our longstanding alliance with Japan, the U.S. can’t afford to pick sides. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prevailed on both nations to adopt [“cool heads”](http://www.cnbc.com/id/49205780) and engage in diplomatic discussions over the control and possession of the islands.
Clinton has a point. Naval buildup in the East Asian seas isn’t going to do anything apart from causing more tension and paranoia on both sides. Regardless of China’s so-called territorial stance of the islands belonging to China since ancient times, the inhabited islands were bought from their private owner by Japan for [$30 million] (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/china/territorial-disputes/index.html?offset=0&s=newest). We should just leave the islands the way they used to be: vacant.
Beijing recently broke out in anti-Japanese riots in response to Japan gaining legal control of the islands. Sources say the riots were allowed and encouraged by Chinese officials. What does this spell for diplomatic relations between Japan and China? If China’s nationalism continues to grow, and with its growth create a Chinese nationalistic Godzilla, Japanese-Chinese relations will only worsen.
Regardless of international law or any historical right either country has to the islands, what these two nations need to do is talk. The only way to delay conflict is for leaders of each country to hash out their differences and listen. Right now the only dialogue between the two countries is accusations and allegations.
These tensions building on the Asian shores feel too similar to the events leading up to WWI; we cannot watch in quiet surveillance to see what happens. Look how the Balkan powder keg blew up. All it takes is one side to make a move, and the rest is history.