After Missouri’s win over Kentucky and Florida’s upset of Georgia, Mizzou is in the Southeastern Conference Eastern division driver’s seat. Take a look at the odds for each team that could end up playing in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.
**SEC East Standings**
Missouri (7-2, 4-1)
No. 17 Georgia (6-2, 4-2)
Florida (4-3, 3-3)
*Kentucky (5-4, 2-4)
*South Carolina (4-5, 2-5)
*Tennessee (4-5, 1-4)
*Vanderbilt (3-6, 0-5)
*Denotes elimination from SEC Championship Game contention
**Missouri Tigers (7-2, 4-1)**
Remaining games: at Texas A&M, at Tennessee, vs. Arkansas
After a huge home collapse to Georgia, somehow the Tigers managed to find their way back to the top of the divisional standings. Missouri sits at 4-1 in conference play, and aside from the 34-0 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, it has rolled through SEC play. Mizzou owns the tiebreaker over Florida by virtue of its win in The Swamp a few weeks ago, meaning the Gators aren’t a legitimate threat to the Tigers’ title hopes. Missouri controls its own destiny: Wins against Texas A&M, Tennessee and Arkansas secure them a spot in Atlanta.
_Odds of winning division: 70 percent_
**No. 17 Georgia Bulldogs (6-2, 4-2)**
Remaining games: at Kentucky, vs. No. 3 Auburn, vs. Charleston Southern, vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia made things a lot more complicated by being steamrolled by rival Florida this past weekend. Now the Bulldogs have an uphill battle to reclaim the SEC East’s top spot. To start that long road back, Georgia has to win the rest of its conference games, which means pulling off a huge upset at home against No. 3 Auburn. If the Dawgs can manage to do that, they’ll still require some help.
Georgia would need to have the same conference record as Missouri to win the division. For this to happen, the Bulldogs can either go undefeated and have Mizzou lose one game, or they can lose to Auburn, but Mizzou would have to lose two of its final three games.
_Odds of winning division: 25 percent_
**Florida Gators (4-3, 3-3)**
Remaining games: at Vanderbilt, vs. South Carolina, vs. Eastern Kentucky, at No. 2 Florida State
Florida looked down and out after the team’s blowout loss to Missouri at home. But the Gators rebounded and smashed rival Georgia to launch themselves back into title contention. The Gators have a fairly favorable road ahead of them: Their only remaining conference games are against a Vanderbilt squad that hasn’t won an SEC game and against South Carolina at home — both very winnable games. And even more fortunately for Florida coach Will Muschamp and company, the season finale against Florida State won’t matter since it’s a non-conference contest.
But winning isn’t all Florida has to do. They have to hope and pray a little bit, too. For the Gators to claim first place, they would not only have to win out, but Georgia would need to lose again and Mizzou would have to drop all three of its final SEC games. Not very likely. The Gators look dead in their swampy water.
_Odds of winning division: 5 percent_
**SEC West Standings**
No. 1 Mississippi State (8-0, 5-0)
No. 4 Alabama (7-1, 4-1)
No. 3 Auburn (7-1, 4-1)
No. 12 Ole Miss (7-2, 4-2)
No. 14 LSU (7-2, 3-2)
*Texas A&M (6-3, 2-3)
*Arkansas (4-5, 0-5)
* denotes elimination from SEC Championship Game contention
**No. 1 Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-0, 5-0)**
_Remaining games: vs. Tennessee Martin, at No. 4 Alabama, vs. Vanderbilt, at No. 12 Ole Miss_
Mississippi State is the only undefeated squad in the conference, and as such, it’s the leader of the pack right now. But things are about to pick up again for the nation’s top team. In the final three weeks of the season, the Bulldogs have to make road trips to both Alabama and Ole Miss.
Mississippi State could feasibly still lose one of those two matchups and make the SEC Championship Game, but that might be unlikely. Alabama would own the tiebreaker if the Crimson Tide won in Tuscaloosa against the Bulldogs, and that could complicate things. But if Mississippi State loses in Tuscaloosa and in Oxford, things will really get interesting.
Don’t get too confused, though: The Bulldogs still control their own destiny.
_Odds of winning division: 55 percent_
**No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1, 4-1)**
_Remaining games: at No. 19 LSU, vs. No. 1 Mississippi State, vs. Western Carolina, vs. No. 3 Auburn_
Alabama may be the best team in the SEC West, but the Crimson Tide have the toughest road remaining. The final month of the season will see the Tide travel to Baton Rouge for another slugfest with the Tigers of LSU. Then, a week later, they return to Tuscaloosa to defend their home turf against the nation’s top ranked team, Mississippi State. If the Tide beat the Bulldogs, they’d own the tiebreaker over Mississippi State and be in the driver’s seat. Finally, before it’s all said and done, the Iron Bowl brings Alabama and Auburn together for a high-powered, end-of-season clash.
No matter how talented the Crimson Tide is, it isn’t making it through that three-game stretch unbeaten. That by itself might be enough to sink Alabama’s title aspirations.
However, if Alabama does win out, the Tide is rolling to Atlanta.
_Odds of winning division: 27 percent_
**No. 3 Auburn Tigers (7-1, 4-1)**
_Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M, at No. 11 Georgia, vs. Samford, at No. 6 Alabama_
Auburn earned a massive win on the road at Ole Miss this past weekend, and all of the sudden, it’s back in the thick of things in the West. The Tigers could realistically win out with two of their SEC matchups against Texas A&M and Georgia — two teams that have been exposed in big ways over the past few weeks. All that remains is a big road date with in-state rival Alabama. The Iron Bowl is never an easy one to predict, but with the injury bug biting the Crimson Tide, Auburn could very well pull this one out.
Even if they run the table, it might not be enough for the Tigers. The Tigers not only have to win out, but also must see Mississippi State lose to Alabama and Ole Miss.
_Odds of winning division: 15 percent_
**No. 14 LSU Tigers (7-2, 3-2)**
_Remaining games: vs. No. 6 Alabama, at Arkansas, at Texas A&M_
LSU looks like it might have finally figured it out offensively, but it might be too little, too late. If the Bayou Bengals can pull off another home upset this week against Alabama, then they could very easily win out with road wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M.
But it’s a lot more complicated than that. LSU would also have to see Auburn lose twice and Mississippi State lose three times. With the schedules those two teams have remaining, this is nothing more than a long shot.
_Odds of winning division: 2 percent_
**No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (7-2, 4-2)**
_Remaining games: vs. Presbyterian, at Arkansas, vs. No. 1 Mississippi State_
Ole Miss really shot itself in the foot by losing at LSU and again the following week at home versus Auburn. Both games were close and could have easily gone the other way, but all that matters now is the tally mark in the loss column. The Rebels have a lot of ground to make up now, and it goes without saying they’ll have to beat their rival Bulldogs at home to finish the season. But in addition to winning out, Ole Miss must have Mississippi State lose to Alabama, Alabama lose to LSU, LSU lose to Arkansas or Texas A&M and Auburn lose to Alabama and Georgia.
That’s a lot of variables.
_Odds of winning division: 1 percent_