For all intents and purposes, the 2015 Missouri football season is over.
Sure, that’s harsh, but any discussion of where to go next must start with an acknowledgement of where the Tigers are. And right now, Missouri is waiting ‘til next year.
After the loss to Vanderbilt last weekend, Missouri’s record dropped to 4-4 and the Tigers’ attention turned to 2016 quicker than a Drew Lock hair flip. ESPN ranked them No. 14 out of 14 teams in this week’s Southeastern Conference power rankings. On Monday, there was no doubt that Gary Pinkel and his troops had their eyes on the horizon, where Lock’s career rose in the East (of the SEC).
How quickly times can change.
Now there’s a complication: Maty Mauk will return to the Missouri sideline after his reinstatement Tuesday, and a significant portion of Missouri’s fan base has spun 180 degrees, away from Lock’s rise and away from the future, instead facing the past.
Usually, the return of a starting quarterback is a good thing, especially when he’s taken the Tigers to the last two SEC championship games, two bowl wins, and a 17-5 record in his time as the starter. In this instance, however, Mauk is an unwelcome distraction.
Is it possible reinstating Mauk as Missouri’s starting quarterback gives the Tigers a better chance to win their remaining four games? Sure, maybe. But we return to the original premise: If Missouri is truly a team with perennial SEC championship aspirations, this season is already lost. Therefore, the results of the next four games are irrelevant except in their impact on the next two, three, four seasons. And, without question, Lock’s development holds the ultimate key to success in those seasons.
Obviously, Missouri’s defense — which ranks among the top 10 in the nation — is not the problem. And considering it figures to lose only seniors Kentrell Brothers, Ian Simon and Kenya Dennis, the future is bright for defensive coordinator Barry Odom’s tacklin’ Tigers.
But on the opposite side, the Tigers might as well be tackling themselves. Out of 128 FBS (Division I-A) teams, Missouri ranks 127th in yards per game (276) and points per game (14.9). Only Central Florida averages fewer yards and only Miami (Ohio) averages fewer points. Those two teams have a combined 1-15 record.
Short of seceding and forming its own team, the Missouri defense is left with few options. The most obvious solution is wait until next year. Next year might not be much better, however, especially if Mauk is allowed to return to the helm of the Missouri offense this season.
Let’s return to the inevitable push for Mauk to return as the Tigers’ starting quarterback: Are Missouri fans prepared to pin the offensive struggles entirely on Lock? What about an offensive line, starting four seniors, that ranks among the worst in the nation?
The Tigers will graduate those four starters on their offensive line, a unit that has been its weakest point this season. In power running situations, defined as third or fourth downs when the offense is within two yards of a first down and attempts a running play, Missouri is successful just 38.5 percent of the time. Not only is that the worst mark in the country, it isn’t even half of Texas Tech’s nation-leading 90.9 percent. Only seven other FBS teams convert fewer than 50 percent of their attempts, and only Ole Miss converts fewer than 40 percent.
Condensed, the Missouri offense has 99 problems and quarterback is definitely one. But it’s only one.
Has Lock been good? Not particularly. Has he been measurably better than what Mauk would’ve been over the last four games? Doubtful. But neither of those answers is relevant to choosing Missouri’s starting quarterback for its remaining games.
Unless Missouri fans want to start over at square one of another quarterback controversy next season and continue to stunt the development of one of the best quarterback prospects it has ever netted, it’s time for the Tigers to look toward the horizon once more, this time with renewed conviction.
The only relevant question left to answer is this: How can Missouri best use its last four regular season games to improve its future? And the answers to that question are debatable at some positions. Not at quarterback.
Drew Lock is the future.