Missouri football’s Week 2 matchup against Kentucky kicks off the Tigers’ 10th season in the SEC, almost a decade since the program jumped ship from the Big 12 Conference. Today, fans continue to debate one question: Was it worth it?
With Oklahoma and Texas confirming their decisions to expand the conference, it’s a good time to dive deeper into that question from the lens of football. Were things better or worse when coach Gary Pinkel and his crew scuffled against the Big 12? And what is the formula for success if the Tigers want to compete for a winning record and a berth in the SEC championship game?
Better then or better now?
To judge based on wins and losses along with recruiting success, Missouri’s final nine seasons in the Big 12 from 2003 to 2011 proved more fruitful than the team’s first nine in the SEC.
The Tigers enter 2021 with a 35-39 conference record (0.473 winning percentage) after finishing out their tenure in the Big 12 with a 42-31 record (0.575 winning percentage). And while many view the SEC as the best football conference in the country, Missouri actually faced more ranked competition in the last decade of Big 12 football. Missouri competed in 31 conference games against schools within the AP Top 25 (7-24 record against), but 29 ranked conference matchups with a better winning percentage (7-22) in the SEC isn’t far off.
Off the field, per 247Sports, Pinkel achieved a better average class ranking at the end of the Big 12 era than he, Barry Odom and Eli Drinkwitz collectively put together to start SEC play.
Anchored by two top-25 finishes in the 247 Sports hierarchy, including the program’s best recruiting class at No.19 in 2003, an average commitment haul ranked around No.34 in the nation in those final nine years.
Pinkel started out SEC recruiting hot, winning over big prospects such as No.1-ranked prospect Dorial Green-Beckham, five-star defensive lineman Terry Beckner Jr. and future NFL quarterback Drew Lock. But once Odom took over, the program took a dip in recruiting prowess and peaked at No. 37 between 2015 and 2020 to finish the initial nine years of SEC football with an average class ranking of 39th in the nation.
Breakdown against the SEC
Since the program shifted to the SEC, Missouri has achieved an admirable amount of success for a school that is A) relatively new to the conference, B) not a typical football powerhouse and C) losing more than half of its conference games. The Tigers competed in back-to-back SEC Championship games in 2013 and 2014 and reached .500 or better in a majority of their conference slates.
But what goes into those good seasons? What makes the difference between a contending team and a team that’s fighting to stay out of the dregs of the SEC East?
The defensive gap between a “good” season and a “bad” season isn’t ridiculously wide. In Missouri’s four conference-losing seasons, it only gave up 1.6 more points per game than it did in years of .500 or better play. The Tigers trotted out some great defensive units in losing seasons, including the No. 5 defense in the nation in 2015, when the Tigers went 1-7 against SEC foes, and the No. 16 defense in 2019 despite a 3-5 conference record.
This means the offense has the biggest role to play in whether or not the Tigers finish their SEC slate strong. Missouri scores almost two touchdowns (12.4 points per game) better in seasons where it wins at least half of its games. Great weapons contribute greatly to a solid offensive season as Missouri has been aided by a 1,000-yard rusher in four out those five seasons, and Larry Rountree III would have certainly surpassed that mark with 972 rushing yards on last year’s 5-5 squad had the team played a full season.
Since expansion, Missouri’s offense in losing seasons has played dreadfully. Dragged down by 9.1 points per game in conference play in 2015, the Tigers averaged slightly under 18 points per conference game in their four losing seasons since 2012 with a -9.4 scoring differential in those seasons.
The Tigers can also get by with a modest point differential finish with a respectable record. The 2014 team that concluded its season at 11-3 with a conference championship appearance outscored its conference opponents by only 4.8 points per game while gaining about 33 yards more per game. The 2017 squad reached .500 while averaging less than a point per game better than their conference foes. But what takes the cake is last season, when opponents outscored the Tigers by 5.6 points per contest as Missouri still finished the year even.
The same cannot be said in losing seasons. In sub -.500 campaigns, Missouri is outscored by more than a touchdown.
Other indicators for success
Outside of points per game and scoring differential, there are other factors that are telling of Missouri’s success against SEC competition.
While a 1,000-yard rusher is fairly important to ensuring the success of a Missouri program, 3,000-yard passers don’t necessarily hold the same weight. Lock compiled the only three seasons with at least 3,000 yards since Missouri’s Big 12 exodus, and while the Tigers finished 0.500 during conference action in two of those seasons, they’ve also provided well for themselves without an impressive air attack.
James Franklin and Maty Mauk never reached that benchmark in the 2013 and 2014 seasons respectively, and both of those teams finished with 7-1 conference records and an SEC title game berth. Same goes for Connor Bazelak last year.
As for the importance of winning Saturday’s matchup against Kentucky, there is some significance to triumphing in the conference opener. Missouri is 3-6 in its first SEC game of the year, and both SEC East winning squads won their conference opener. The Tigers have also never gone above .500 when they drop their first conference game.
So who is it important for Missouri to beat to finish with a .500 record?
Since six of eight games come against intra-division opponents, it’s vital that Missouri comes out at least .500 against those opponents to finish with a .500 record or better within the conference. Every year in which the Tigers have gone at least 3-3 against SEC opponents, they finished with a .500 conference record or better.
But in terms of specific opponents, Missouri needs to beat Vanderbilt, as the Tigers have never finished above .500 in conference play when they lose to the Commodores. Florida and Tennessee are also great wins to pick up as four out of the five .500 or better seasons were coupled with wins against both programs.
Another matchup of historical importance is the crossover matchup against Texas A&M in mid-October. In both seasons where Missouri knocked off A&M, it reached the SEC Championship.
Drinkwitz and a bulk of the roster possess a lot of exposure to the SEC given last year’s conference-only schedule. In Year 2 of the new regime, this season should be a decent indicator of whether Missouri can bring its all-time SEC record above .500 and compete with the upper echelons of the conference into the 2020s.
Edited by Kyle Pinnell, kpinnell@themaneater.com