Major League Baseball begins tomorrow, and now that spring training has come to an end, it is time to determine what exactly will happen. Without further ado …
**1. The St. Louis Cardinals will not make the playoffs** — Everything seemed to go the Cardinals’ way last season. They even were one strike away from losing the World Series, twice.
The Cardinals obviously lost a big piece in Albert Pujols, who averaged better than eight Wins Above Replacement while in St. Louis. The bigger question facing the Cards is how long will ace Chris Carpenter be out with a neck injury? Carpenter out indefinitely is comparable to last year when the Cards found out Adam Wainwright would be out for the season.
It isn’t unfathomable for a team to win the World Series and miss the playoffs the next season.
The Cards squeaked into the playoffs three days before the season ended, finishing with a 18-8 record in the month of September after being 10.5 games out of the Wild Card race after being terribly mediocre for much of the year. St. Louis went 44-35 against NL Central opponents last season.
With Wainwright coming back from an injury, a new manager in Mike Matheny, losing pitching coach Dave Duncan (the all-time winningest pitching coach), and placing a large reliance upon the oft-injured Carlos Beltran, St. Louis has undergone too much change to even have the ability to defend its crown in October.
**2. Josh Hamilton will win the AL MVP** — Hamilton is entering contract year and, after having two injury-plagued seasons, he must prove he is worth the massive contract that he will surely obtain.
At the same time, Hamilton must prove he has truly put his demons behind him off the field as an alcoholic, as it is known throughout the league that he relapsed during the offseason. A monster season from Hamilton would allow him to move past both of these problems.
Anticipate Hamilton to return to MVP form and his numbers to be match or surpass his 2010 campaign when he hit a league-best .359 average and had a league-high .633 slugging percentage to go along with 32 home runs and 100 RBIs. Hamilton spent much of 2011 recovering from a fractured right humerus sustained in April game while sliding into home plate.
**3. The Philadelphia Phillies will be the ones winning the crown in October** — Pitching is prime come playoff time, and the Phillies still have a great staff, as well as a solid lineup. The Phillies’ 3.02 team ERA in 2011 was the lowest in the majors since 1989. No one has a top-three combination like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and contract-year Cole Hamels.
The Phillies will need Chase Utley to reemerge back to All-Star form if they are to make a deep postseason run. Utley will miss Opening Day with knee problems.
What sets the Phillies apart aside from their pitching is their offensive prowess with a plethora of All-Stars in Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco and Utley (when healthy). On paper the Phillies have as good a lineup as any team in baseball.
If the Phillies can emerge from an extremely competitive NL East division, they are a good bet in October to win the World Series.