After a 16-point loss to Ole Miss, Missouri women’s basketball will face an even tougher test on Thursday against the nation’s No. 13 program in Knoxville, Tennessee.
The Tennessee Lady Vols host the Tigers at a time when both teams are looking to bounce back. Since upsetting No. 1 South Carolina on Dec. 30, Missouri is 4-5, dealing a blow to its NCAA Tournament aspirations.
On the opposite side, Tennessee is poised to make the tournament in March with a 19-4 record — but the Lady Vols have lost three of their last four games after starting the year 17-1.
The Tigers are just 1-3 against AP Top 25 teams, meaning Tennessee will provide quite the test. Even though there is no recipe for success, the Tigers do have a path to escaping their battle against the Lady Vols unscathed.
Here is what Missouri can do to pull off its second top-15 upset of the season:
- Be the grittier team:
If there is one area Missouri can dominate Tennessee in, it is in the turnover department.
The Lady Vols enter Thursday’s game averaging an SEC-worst 17.5 turnovers per game, leading to a -3.43 turnover margin. In its three recent losses, Tennessee lost the turnover battle by a combined 55-32, exposing a glaring weakness for an otherwise complete Lady Vols team.
However, Missouri ranks dead last in the SEC and No. 333 in the NCAA with 12.7 turnovers forced per game, contributing to its -2.17 turnover margin. While the Tigers only commit 14.9 turnovers per game, their defense continues to be a liability.
During its upset victory over South Carolina, Missouri battled to an 8-8 turnover margin, which allowed the Tigers to hold onto their lead and walk away victorious in overtime.
Although Tennessee presents a different test, simply tying or even winning the turnover battle will be a key factor in determining if the Tigers win the game. For Missouri head coach Robin Pingeton, turnovers have been a topic of discussion all season.
“We talk a lot about paint points and free throw points — but more importantly, the importance of playing with 12 or less turnovers,” Pingeton said. “They can turn you over in a hurry, and it’s usually going to result in a basket on the other end.”
If Missouri utilizes its slight advantage to win the turnover battle and holds itself to Pingeton’s goal, the Tigers will be one step closer to knocking off one of the top programs in women’s college basketball.
- Play a complete game:
For the first time since its week-long COVID-19 hiatus in early January, Missouri has a full week to prepare for its opponent. After playing games every three to four days for the past month, the Tigers have a much-needed rest.
Since the program’s shutdown, Missouri has not looked like the program it was when it short-handedly defeated South Carolina. With a week’s rest to prepare for a reeling Tennessee team, the Tigers are in prime upset position.
One of Missouri’s flaws since the break has been its inability to play a complete game on both sides of the ball. Whether going through scoreless stretches several minutes long or failing to protect the paint and offensive glass, the Tigers have struggled to play a full 40-minute game.
After a rocky and inefficient game against Ole Miss on Feb. 3, Missouri’s week-long break gives it the chance to rest and prepare for a similar defensive-minded program in Tennessee.
The Lady Vols hold opponents to 32.9% shooting from the field and 26.9% from beyond the arc, which ranks No. 3 and No. 32 in the NCAA respectively. Tennessee only allows 58.6 points per game while compiling a plus-11.9 scoring margin.
The Tigers counter with an SEC-best 47.2% shooting from the field and the nation’s third-highest mark from beyond the arc at 39.3%. Missouri averages 72.1 points per game and 8.3 made 3-pointers per game.
When the Tigers’ efficient offense meets the Lady Vols’ aggressive defense Thursday, the team that plays the more complete game will earn another high-profile SEC victory. Thus — with its week-long rest and preparation — Missouri is in prime position to play the role of spoiler against Tennessee.
- Find ways to match up against Tennessee’s dominant rebounding:
The Lady Vols pride themselves on their 49.4 rebounds per game, which rank No. 2 in the NCAA. Tennessee grabs 16.8 offensive rebounds per game and holds the nation’s second-best rebounding margin at plus-14.7. A trio of Lady Vols average more than seven rebounds per game, led by junior guard Jordan Horston’s 9.3 and junior center Tamari Key’s 8.1.
While Missouri junior guard Aijha Blackwell ranks No. 2 in the NCAA with 13.3 rebounds per game, the Tigers are dead last in the SEC in rebounding. Missouri has a plus-3.4 rebounding margin by limiting opponents to 32.7 rebounds per game, but faces a difficult task against Tennessee.
The Tigers can combat the rebounding difference in a few ways, but the best way is to find open shots and continue its efficienct shooting display. Due to their stingy scoring defense, the Lady Vols force teams into several misses and earn a majority of their rebounds off of those, so Missouri’s key will be to make baskets.
If the Tigers cannot make a majority of their baskets, the next step will be to limit Tennessee’s offensive rebounds, which will require strong performances on the boards from Blackwell and redshirt senior forward LaDazhia Williams.
However, Missouri’s motivation and drive will be an indicator of how much of a difference there will be in the rebounding department.
“I don’t think [rebounding] has anything to do with size,” Pingeton said. “To me it’s who’s the aggressor, who has greater attention to detail and how bad you want it.”
After feeling the adrenaline rush during their last upset, the Tigers are ready for another upset victory. However, Missouri has another motivating factor that may mean even more to it: win and you are in.
While it is not that simple, a victory would improve Missouri’s record to 17-7 and boost its resume, which would include victories over South Carolina and Tennessee. The Tigers have two 2-point losses to LSU and Baylor as well, displaying their ability to compete against a few of the country’s best teams. Thus, a victory on Thursday would most likely secure Missouri a seed on selection day in March.
Edited by Riley Gearhart | rgearhart@themaneater.com
