Oscars season is upon us, and as such, many critics are making their predictions. The Academy Awards are one of those cultural touchstones for the American film industry. Despite the many controversies and historically low ratings, millions of people still watch the anticipated ceremony. Below are predictions for who will win some of the more contentious categories this year.

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Austin Butler for “Elvis,” Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Brendan Fraser for “The Whale,” Paul Mescal for “Aftersun” and Bill Nighy for “Living.”

The race for Actor in a Leading Role is a close one this year. Paul Mescal and Bill Nighy both put on fantastic performances in their respective films, but the academy likely won’t recognize these actors for the award. The academy’s considerations will likely come down to Austin Butler’s portrayal of Elvis and Brendan Fraser’s performance in “The Whale.”

Brendan Fraser’s win for Best Actor in the Critics Choice Awards is a strong indicator that he will be the winner of the Oscars. In the past 10 years, 70% of the Oscars’ Best Actor winners have previously won the Critics Choice Award for best actor in the same role.

Despite Fraser’s likelihood of winning, it would be fulfilling to see Colin Farrell win for “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Farrell has proven himself a unique leading actor in films like “The Lobster” and “In Bruges.” His most recent film is no exception. In a film so full of space as “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Farrell was given room to act beyond simply delivering lines.

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Cate Blanchett for “Tár,” Ana de Armas for “Blonde,” Andrea Riseborough for “To Leslie,” Michelle Williams for “The Fablemans” and Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

There are some notable names missing from the above nominee list, including Viola Davis for “The Woman King” and maybe even Florence Pugh for “Don’t Worry Darling.” This year the award for Actress in a Leading Role is likely to come down to Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh.

Before surveying the likely winners, Andrea Riseborough’s performance should be given note, as it carried a film that had little else going for it. Between Blanchett and Yeoh, the clear winner should be Blanchett. Blanchett’s performance in “Tár” was disquieting. As the film centers solely on Blanchett’s character, Lydia Tár, the actress was given space to grow the character and really show off her acting ability.

Yeoh put on a great performance in “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” but the film itself suffocated and distracted from the acting. Yeoh simply wasn’t given space in a film that had everything going on, all at once.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Brendan Gleeson for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Brian Tyree Henry for “Causeway,” Judd Hirsch for “The Fabelmans,” Barry Keoghan for “The Banshees of Inisherin” and Ke Huy Quan for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

It is gratifying to see actors Judd Hirsch and Barry Keoghan up for the nomination. Both of these actors only feature in a couple of scenes in their films, but their performances still draw viewers’ attention. That said, this category — as with the other two — comes down to two actors: Brendan Gleeson and Ke Huy Quan.

The academy has voted with the Critics Choice Association in this category 80% of the time in the past 10 years. This year, the CCA gave Quan the award. This is the right choice. Though Gleeson’s performance was phenomenal, it was also quite muted. Quan’s performance in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was the highlight of a film already filled to the brim with achievements. While Yeoh was swept into the choreographed fights in the film, Quan’s character, Waymond Wang, serves as the emotional catalyst for the film.

Best Picture

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fablemans,” “Tár,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Triangle of Sadness,” “Women Talking.”

The choices for Best Picture are deeply frustrating. The inclusion of “Top Gun: Maverick” and even “Avatar: The Way of Water” were not suitable choices for Best Picture. There are a number of films that would be better suited for the award like “Decision to Leave,” “Armageddon Time” and others, especially “Nope.”

The Best Picture category is voted upon by all members of the academy and is conducted by rank choice voting. So, predicting best picture can somewhat be done by looking at the film with the most nominations. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” holds the most nominations with 11. Tied for second are “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “All Quiet on the Western Front” with nine each. Of the nominees, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is extremely popular and has the most nominations. This makes it the likely winner.

This should not be the case, however. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was a great film, but just because a film has philosophical themes does not make it Best Picture-worthy. Just because a film says “nothing matters” does not make it profound. The indulgence in visuals — hot-dog-hand-sex, everything bagels — serves no purpose other than that of drawing attention to itself. It is as if a Marvel movie was nominated for Best Picture.

Who of the nominees should win? “The Banshees of Inisherin” is the best choice for the award. There is a cohesion to the film within its script, cinematography, direction, music and acting. The film is built around the concept of “giving people space.” The cinematography provides wide space in its shots, and the characters give each other space within the narrative. The director allows the actors to leave space between lines. This sense of development is why the film deserves the best picture.

This said, if other films — like “Armageddon Time” and “Nope” — were included in the lineup of nominees, these choices would be different.

Directing

Nominees: Martin McDonagh for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Steven Spielberg for “The Fablemans,” Todd Field for “Tár” and Ruben Östlund for “Triangle of Sadness.”

Before diving in, it should be noted that many directors were snubbed for this award, perhaps no more than Sarah Polley for “Women Talking.” Similar to other categories, the academy has a tendency to vote with the Critics Choice Association in this category. In the past 10 years, the academy has voted with the CCA 70% of the time within this category. This year, the CCA gave the award to Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert.

If the academy votes with the CCA — as expected — it will be making the wrong decision. The award should go to Steven Spielberg. “The Fablemans” was a deeply personal story for the film’s director. Spielberg’s direction shines throughout the entire film. The lighting, camera placement and line delivery within the film are well-controlled. These are the signs of a great director, in a film that is an ode to directors as artists.

Edited by Savvy Sleevar | ssleevar@themaneater.com
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