Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain has received quite the attention over the past few weeks for his 9-9-9 tax plan.
What does 9-9-9 mean? It’s a plan to throw out the entire current federal tax system and replace it with a simple 9 percent tax on all personal income, 9 percent tax on corporate income, and new 9 percent national sales tax. It would eliminate payroll taxes, excise taxes, capital gains (profit from investments) taxes and most deductions on personal income taxes. It’s very simple, very appealing on the surface and a terrible idea in its current form.
Cain says the plan will be revenue-neutral, which means he thinks it will bring in the same amount of money for the government as the current tax system. But according to Bloomberg News, the 9-9-9 plan would have generated about $2 trillion in revenue if it were in place last year, $200 billion less than the federal government actually gathered in taxes, meaning larger budget deficits.
Granted, it’s difficult to make an accurate prediction considering it would be a huge change for the economy. Pre-tax prices of goods could fall if 9-9-9 were implemented, and since payroll taxes would be eliminated, pre-tax wages could rise by as much as 13 percent for everyone. “Could” is the key word, though.
Those effects of the plan sound nice, but then you have to factor in the new taxes. Everyone would pay a 9 percent income tax, including half of Americans who are currently not paying any income taxes after deductions and refunds. Suddenly, the potential 13 percent wage increase doesn’t seem as good for the poorer half of America.
The benefit from potentially cheaper goods vanishes after the 9 percent national sales tax is factored in, too. Currently, the poorest 20 percent of Americans pay an average of 4 percent of their income in federal taxes after refunds are factored in, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Cain’s plan would almost triple their tax burden. According to the Tax Policy Center, as many as 84 percent of Americans could see a tax increase due to Cain’s plan.
Meanwhile, the richest Americans would benefit from large tax decreases. Cain wants to eliminate the tax on capital gains, which are a large source of many wealthy Americans’ income. I have written in a previous column that the rich pay their fair share of taxes, but this kind of shift in the tax burden from the rich to the poor is not right.
The plan is unprecedented because the federal government does not currently impose a sales tax except on certain items in the form of excise taxes. One example is the 18.4 cent tax per gallon of gasoline. But Cain’s plan would give the government power to tax all new goods, services and income at the same time, an unsettling precedent. If Cain can get his 9-9-9 plan through Congress, what’s to stop the government from changing it to a 10-10-10 plan, or worse, later on?
I like the idea of simplifying the tax code. It would make the economy more efficient. But Cain’s 9-9-9 plan is not the right way to go about it because it shifts the tax burden from the rich to the poor.
A better idea would be to consolidate income and payroll taxes into one tax and eliminate some excise taxes like the one on gasoline, simplify deductions and lower the income tax rate across the board. This can surely be done in such a way so everyone pays the same amount of taxes as they are currently paying and it would free up millions of hours and dollars wasted complying with the tax code.
Herman Cain must change his plan if he wants to be elected.