It seems pretty likely that Europeans, not Americans, will get to decide if President Barack Obama gets another term. No, this isn’t a conspiracy theory but a story of how the leaders of the European Union and its central bank are scrambling to prevent a monetary and financial crisis that would drag Europe and the United States back into a recession, according to analysts.
Right now, the U.S. economy is slowly improving. Consumer spending is up and unemployment is down from a peak of more than 10 percent to under 9 percent. As long as this trend holds, we’ll be in fairly good shape in a year — if Europe lets us. If Europe can’t prevent a financial crisis that could hurt the banking system around the world, the U.S. has no hope to escape a recession that will last far past the elections in November 2012. Historically, a weak economy makes it very difficult for the incumbent president to win re-election.
It’s no surprise, then, that President Obama’s economic team has been quietly negotiating with Europe and trying to do what it can to keep Europe from falling apart. Last week, the Federal Reserve and other world central banks announced they’re going to let European countries borrow money at very low rates, which effectively means they’ll have more freedom to move money around and less likely to be in trouble. However, the European Central Bank and other EU leaders have been slower to act because the situation from inside Europe is more complicated due to competing politics and interests.
Why will these European leaders have a greater impact on the election than even the Republican nominee? Frankly, the top two Republicans — Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich — are pretty weak candidates. Obama’s campaign has already begun to go after Romney, sending out advisers to talk shows and setting up a website [www.WhichMitt.com](http://www.whichmitt.com) to question his flip-flops on issues. In 2004, President Bush successfully labeled Sen. John Kerry as a flip-flopper and likely hurt Kerry’s chances. Even though he refuses to admit it, Romney has changed his mind on several issues crucial to conservatives, like abortion and gun control.
The timing of Democrats’ attack on Romney is interesting. If you pay attention closely, it appears Democrats prefer to have Gingrich as the Republican nominee. To win the nomination, Gingrich has to hope his past isn’t revisited thoroughly, because conservatives will remember they don’t actually like him. He was pushed out of the House of Representatives by his own party after ethics charges were damaging their popularity. He was having an extramarital affair during the time he was investigating President Bill Clinton’s extramarital affairs. He took money from Freddie Mac, one of the government institutions conservatives hate most, to give “strategic advice,” but he insists this wasn’t lobbying.
The economy is crucial in presidential elections. The two leading Republicans at the moment are weaker than they appear, so they will probably depend on the state of the economy to swing the election in their favor. The European Union’s future decisions are the biggest threat to our economy’s recovery, so unless Republicans can miraculously choose a stronger candidate (Jon Huntsman?), Europeans might be deciding our election over the next few months.
