After one week at No. 10 on the AP Top 25, Missouri stumbled to finish out its regular season schedule.
The Tigers lost five of their last seven games on their way to the No. 7 seed in the SEC Tournament, which begins Thursday, Mar. 11.
So, how did Missouri get to the point? Is a deep SEC Tournament run possible? Where could the Tigers find themselves seeding-wise once Selection Sunday rolls around?
The Maneater’s men’s basketball beat answered those questions and more in a roundtable discussion leading up to the conference gauntlet.
###What was the biggest factor to Missouri’s fall from the rankings?###
Mason Arneson: It was the Tigers’ guard play that helped them rise into the AP Top 10, and it was their guard play that allowed them to fall completely out of the Top 25.
Dru Smith was one of the lone constants on this inconsistent team over the course of the season. He’s played like an All-SEC caliber player through the entire year, so it really boils down to junior Xavier Pinson and senior Mark Smith playing inconsistent basketball.
Pinson’s season featured great moments — such as a 10-14 shooting outing against then-No. 6 Tennessee and a career-high 36 points in an overtime comeback against TCU. But conversely, he’s had some astonishing low points over the back half of the SEC schedule.
During Missouri’s 2-5 stretch to close out the regular season, Missouri’s second-best scorer shot just 35.7% from the floor and struggled to get to the free throw line. In four of the seven games over that stretch, Pinson did not attempt a free throw. Pinson’s highest free throw attempt total during that span was six.
Mark Smith initially looked like a breakout star after being hampered by injuries in his junior year in the first five games of the season. After that, he looked like a middle-of-the-pack college swingman after that.
Against Ole Miss and Arkansas, he combined to shoot 1-10 from the field in 57 minutes of play. Most of the shots he takes are good open shots, but his ability to knock them down faltered against conference opponents.
Jack Soble: Guard play is probably the No. 1 reason, like Mason said. Even though sophomore forward Kobe Brown has played the best basketball of his career during the past month or so, Missouri struggled because Pinson struggled. When it boils down to it, he’s really the key to this team.
It’s also important to note the defensive decline that contributed to the Tigers’ regular season downfall. When Missouri has been successful — the best example by far that comes to mind is the first 34 minutes of the Alabama game — it has been an attacking, versatile defense that gets its hands on basketballs and creates opportunities for offense. If the Tigers can’t wreck opponents’ games on defense, the offense can go cold in the half court.
It’s gone under the radar because they’ve lost games, but Missouri has been a significantly better-shooting team since conference play started. Despite its 6-0 record before the first Tennessee game on Dec. 30, Missouri shot 28.4% from beyond the arc.
Since then, the Tigers have shot 33.1% from beyond the arc, yet their record is obviously worse: 9-8.
The difference is that the defense wasn’t up to snuff. The Tigers got back to it in the first half of the Florida game, which is the main reason they won. They did come back to Earth on Saturday against LSU, but questionable foul calls and LSU freshman guard Cameron Thomas playing out of his mind against good on-ball defense can excuse that performance.
###What does Missouri need to change in order to make it past Georgia?###
MA: Missouri lost its first matchup against Georgia on Feb. 16 in the middle of its three-game skid in mid-February. A big reason why was the absence of senior forward Jeremiah Tilmon. He missed two games following a death in his family.
Without Tilmon, Missouri’s frontcourt offense couldn’t take full advantage of the smaller Georgia team, whose tallest starter, sophomore forward Toumani Camara, is only 6-foot-8. Brown played the best game of his college tenure with a career-high 21 points against Georgia’s smaller big men, but he didn’t space the floor quite like Tilmon.
As Georgia plays Thursday with Tilmon back in action, the low post attack should be amplified.
Tilmon cooled down in the final month of the season after he was a double-double machine to start conference play. Despite that his ability to draw attention in the post cannot be overlooked in Missouri’s offense. He is one of the better back-to-the-basket bigs in the conference and can feed shooters on the perimeter.
In order for Missouri to ensure a third matchup of the season against Arkansas, Tilmon needs to be the focal point of the Tiger offense on Thursday.
JS: Missouri lost to Georgia for the reasons I listed above: poor play from Pinson, horrendous defense down the stretch yet another blown second-half lead.
Getting Tilmon back will obviously help, but as the LSU game — in which the Bayou Bengals only let him get three shots up — showed relying on the big man to bail Missouri out won’t work. If a team can effectively deny him the ball and hound him with multiple defenders whenever he gets it, it’s more than possible to contain Tilmon.
Also, until he proves he can be effective from the free throw line — and there is zero reason to expect he will do that — teams will have no problem risking fouls in order to put him there when he has the ball in the paint.
If the Tigers keep their foot on the gas pedal, play hard on defense and get good play from X, they should not have a problem dispatching the Bulldogs.
But those are three massive “ifs.”
###Where could you realistically see Missouri on Selection Sunday?###
MA: For all intents and purposes, Missouri secured its spot in March Madness this year based on its record against Quad 1 teams and its wins over ranked opponents. However, Missouri could end up in a wide range of seeds depending on its SEC Tournament outcome.
The Tigers can make an improbable run and win the entire tournament with wins over the top three seeds in Alabama, Arkansas and LSU. They are 2-2 combined against those three opponents, and the losses were tight.
If Missouri finds that spark that they played with against top teams, I could see Missouri surging as high as a five seed if the Tigers make the SEC tournament final. The Tigers could potentially a four seed if they win the entire thing.
Given its inability to take winnable games against Quad 2 opponents and its current cold streak, Missouri is more likely to lose on Thursday than win the whole shebang. I think it’s reasonable to say Missouri is a 10 seed going up against the best seven seed if that’s the case.
I think the Tigers end up closer to that 10 seed. If Missouri reaches the quarterfinals and gives Arkansas a good run for its money on Friday, I think coach Cuonzo Martin’s team will end up in one of the unlucky eight-nine seed games. If the Tigers win that, they’ll end up going against a No. 1 seed if they can make it past that.
JS: First of all, it’s important to note where Missouri stands now: ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has the Tigers as a No. 8 seed, slated to face St. Bonaventure in Round 1 and No. 1 seed Baylor in Round 2 if they win.
Missouri tends to play up or down to its competition, so how it goes in the SEC Tournament is going to depend on who makes plays at the end of games. When the Tigers do that — redshirt senior forward Mitchell Smith’s block against Alabama or Pinson’s three with five seconds to go against TCU — they win. When they don’t — Pinson’s awkward shot attempt that effectively sealed the LSU game — they lose.
If Missouri makes those plays and reaches the semifinals, or even the SEC Championship, the Tigers can end up as a No. 6. If the Tigers win the whole thing, they could sneak in as a No. 5 seed. The committee tends to value quality wins, and very few teams stack up to Missouri in that category.
The far more likely scenario, however, is that Missouri beats Georgia, loses a close game to Arkansas and settles in as a No. 8 seed. I don’t think the Tigers fall farther than No. 8 if they beat Georgia — which again — I think they will.
_Edited by Kyle Pinnell | kpinnell@themaneater.com_
