Near the conclusion of its Selection Show, CBS flashed a graphic showing Missouri as one of the final six teams selected for this year’s NCAA Tournament.
But, as coach Mike Anderson told reporters after the announcement, “We’re in it.”
The Tigers have been playing their worst basketball of the season recently, prompting Kim English to claim the team “quit” during its loss to Texas A&M in the Big 12 Tournament last week. Many observers left the team for dead.
And yet, by losing four out of its last five games, Missouri has put itself into a more favorable position to advance in the West Region.
MU received an 11 seed, and will play No. 6 Cincinnati out of the vaunted Big East Conference.
Some bracketologists claimed the Tigers would be a No. 8 or No. 9 seed, which usually results in a quick exit from the tourney because the second game is against a No. 1 seed. (Goodbye, No. 9 Illinois.)
This should translate into some newfound hope (and a little extra motivation) for Missouri. The Bearcats are beatable. In fact, many national pundits are picking MU. The New York Times has Missouri as the “lock upset” of the round. Las Vegas has the Tigers anywhere from one to three point favorites.
As we’ve come to realize, it’s all about matchups when it comes to evaluating Missouri’s odds of winning. Opponents with stronger frontcourts pose significantly tougher assignments than guard-oriented teams.
Cincinnati leans more toward the former. They rank 10th nationally by kenpom.com in offensive rebounding percentage, which measures the possible rebounds an offense can collect. Keep your eye on forward Yancy Gates, who leads the team in points, rebounds and blocks. MU must slow him down and avoid foul trouble to have a chance at winning.
The Bearcats are eighth in overall scoring defense, allowing 59.2 points per game. They like to slow it down, playing at a tempo that ranks 306th (64.0 possessions per game, compared to MU’s 73.6). Think Nebraska.
As much as we can examine Cincinnati, I think this game is determined by how well Missouri plays. Come out flat like it did against A&M, and forget about beating anyone. But, should MU make shots and push the pace a little, it wouldn’t take a whole lot to speed up UC.
Anderson’s style of play validates itself in the postseason. Cincinnati coach Mark Cronin said as much himself Sunday, claiming, “I don’t think there is anybody in the Big East that simulates (Missouri’s) style.”
MU has the edge in experience — UC hasn’t been to the NCAAs since 2005. And although the Tigers aren’t exactly entering on a high note, neither are the Bearcats, who are coming off a 38-point loss to Notre Dame in the Big East Tournament.
All things considered, Missouri got lucky. It has a winnable game followed by potential matchups with Kemba Walker’s tired Connecticut Huskies and a weak No. 2 San Diego State Aztecs team. String together a few wins, and fans will quickly forget the regular season.
The allure of the NCAA Tournament is that it presents teams a clear path to the national championship. For Missouri, it provides an opportunity at redeeming its season. We’ll find out Thursday if the Tigers decide to take advantage of it.
It’s March. Let’s dance.
