Every NCAA tournament starts the same way. I go into the opening games with supreme confidence, believing that my bracket is the bracket. I take it with me everywhere I go, guarding my picks as if they were government secrets. I know that I’m right, everybody else is wrong, and it’s only a matter of time until the whole world knows it. And then the tournament begins.

And every year, just like clockwork, those opening round games knock me back to earth. The favorites we assumed were locks don’t show up, and the Cinderellas we all wrote off thrive on that adversity and overcome it. Watching the opening weekend is kind of like seeing “The Sixth Sense” for the first time— you think you know what’s going on, but then something jaw dropping happens, and afterwards you can’t believe you didn’t see it coming. This year, it turns out Louisville and Pittsburgh were dead the whole time.

So what did we learn? First off, as Denny Green would put it, the Texas Longhorns are who we thought they were. Rick Barnes’ teams follow a pattern—they thrive at first, then wilt eventually, and seek out an early exit come March. This year’s version proved to be no exception.

The Longhorns narrowly escaped an upset bid by Oakland in the second round, winning 85-81 on the back of Tristan Thompson’s seven blocks. Their tournament stay ended on Sunday, however, as they squandered a late comeback and fell to Arizona 70-69. The Wildcats are a very competent team, but that’s not the issue. The fact of the matter is that Texas was once thought of as the best team in the country, and now they’re packing up their bags and leaving in the opening weekend. This isn’t the first time it’s happened, and it probably won’t be the last. Come March, the Horns always get hooked.

Another thing we learned, other than that truTV probably will never get better ratings than what they enjoyed this weekend, is that VCU belongs. Virginia Commonwealth’s inclusion in the Field of 68 was met with almost unanimous criticism, as analysts, coaches, and fans taunted the Rams for not having a tournament-worthy resume. Whether that’s the case or not, VCU has made the most of their opportunity.

The Rams have won three straight games in the tournament, trouncing favorites USC, Georgetown and Purdue in quick succession. Not only have they won these games, but none of them have even been remotely close. VCU has won by an average of 16.3 points per game, and in a tournament with as many close games as we’ve seen that’s really saying something. They don’t have any stars, but the Rams play excellent team defense, and they’ve peaked at the right time.

In the end, I have to live with my predictions. I made some bad choices, just like Butler and Pittsburgh did in the last ten seconds of Saturday’s game. The important thing is to keep your head up and move on (or to burn your bracket and deny you were ever wrong. I won’t say which one I did).