Aldon Smith and Blaine Gabbert became the 16th and 17th first-round picks, respectively, from MU in the history of the NFL Draft Thursday. But did they make the right choice to leave school early?
Usually, the answer would be an undeniable yes.
Missouri coach Gary Pinkel tells his players that if they have a significant chance of being a first-round pick, they should cash in. There are several reasons behind that thinking, the most obvious being risking an injury in college and wiping millions of dollars off their first professional contract.
In Gabbert’s case, being in the discussion for the first overall pick brings national attention to the university via every type of media, including television, magazine, print, radio and on and on. That free publicity for MU is worth millions of dollars.
This year, however, financial disputes between the NFL owners and players have resulted in a work stoppage that is threatening to cancel or shorten the upcoming season. What does it mean for rookies, specifically Gabbert and Smith?
The lockout was technically lifted in court Monday, but the owners are appealing the decision and players have reported that they still cannot meet with team personnel. The longer this stalemate continues, the less likely we will see rookies take the field in 2011, even if a part of the season is salvaged. The consequences are even direr for Gabbert and his fellow quarterbacks than other position players such as Smith.
Although it’s inconceivable to me that the NFL is willing to waste an estimated $9 billion in revenue by cancelling the season, it doesn’t appear the owners and players are hurrying to the negotiation table. As long as the work stoppage continues, coaches and players cannot meet and practices cannot be held. For rookies, this means they cannot learn the playbooks of their new teams.
And for Gabbert, that may pose huge ramifications. Operating almost exclusively out of the shotgun in college, Gabbert will have to adjust to not only professional defenses, but a pro-style offense as well.
When former NFL coach Jon Gruden met with top quarterback prospects as part of ESPN’s coverage of the draft, Gabbert seemed flummoxed by Gruden’s constant references to the adjustment needed to take snaps from under the center rather than in the shotgun.
And that confusion may be the problem scouts are having with Gabbert. He believes he can do anything, just as any prospect should, but his interview with Gruden underscores that he may not be ready to take three-, five- and seven-step drops behind center.
Without experience from training camp during the summer, Gabbert can only practice the same generic plays so much. The less knowledge he has of the playbook of the team who drafts him, the greater the distance between him and an established quarterback (and a backup) already on the team. Therefore, the more practice time he misses with the coaches, the less likely he would be prepared to play a snap should the season play on.
So was it the smart move to leave school early? It’s easier to say yes for Smith than it is for Gabbert, but the truth is only time will tell. Should the work stoppage wipe out summer drills and cancel a portion of the season, remaining at MU would have been the correct choice. Should the NFL get its affairs in order, than there’s no reason Gabbert and Smith should have stayed.