The aging of baby boomers might end up affecting not just social security in the near future, but also colleges around Missouri.
Due to the long-awaited demographic shift, the number of graduating high school seniors is expected to drop, causing a decline in college enrollment numbers around the state.
“There were fewer kids born 20 years ago, 18 years ago, 16 years ago, so there was actually a decline in the Midwest birthrate,” research assistant professor Mark Ehlert said. “There are fewer children in the population. So there are fewer going to school, which means, ultimately, that there will be fewer graduating from high school. It affects the number of resident students who are able to come to Mizzou.”
The long-awaited drop in birthrate, and subsequent enrollment, is largely attributed to the baby boomers’ children finishing high school. From 1994 to 2008, there was a 36 percent increase in high school graduates nationwide due to the population bubble, according to a [St. Louis Post-Dispatch article](http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/education/article_6efc5bee-a0a7-564b-9614-36dfcfc49004.html).
Although the drop was expected, for many colleges the effects are apparent surprisingly early.
“The university is already affected by this change because our Missouri first-time college students, or freshman, enrollment numbers dropped this year compared to last year,” Vice Provost for Enrollment Ann Korschgen said. “It appears that many public universities in Missouri had a drop in their freshman class this year.”
Early estimates show the trend could contribute to a 2 percent drop in the number of Missouri freshmen enrolling at MU.
“I predict that it will affect our enrollment some,” Ehlert said. “There are just fewer kids out there who want to go to college. We will have to work harder if we want more of those kids.”
The drop in in-state numbers has also corresponded with a higher percentage of out-of-state student enrollment. MU has anticipated a 9 percent boost in the number of students crossing state lines for college, according to the Post-Dispatch article.
“We’re getting more out-of-state students because we are recruiting them more heavily,” Ehlert said. “A couple years ago, in anticipation of the decline of the number of high school graduates in Missouri, we started being more aggressive in the recruiting out of state students. That’s the reason we have had pretty large increases in non-resident, first-time college students coming to Mizzou, because we’ve gone out and went after them.”
The strategy for increasing the number of these students largely correlates with the increased number of admissions representatives.
The admissions office currently has six representatives: one in Dallas, one in Kansas City, one in St. Louis and two in Chicago. A new recruiter has been hired for Tulsa area. In addition, Denver and Minneapolis have also been added as new markets.
“I love nothing more than adding Mizzou as an option for these students in search of something new and different,” said Jennifer Keeley Buxton, admissions representative for these new markets.
The drop in incoming students will continue, but due to foresight and new markets, enrollment numbers should return to normal by 2015.
