A couple of months ago, Texas Gov. Rick Perry entered the Republican primary race and immediately became the frontrunner, without much examination. The media decided it was a two-man race between him and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and ignored the other seven candidates. However, the televised debates and straw polls have served to shake up the two-man race perception and have brought into question the control the media has over the election process.
The race has changed considerably over the past month. Perry’s poor performance at debates and alienation of some of his conservative support over issues like illegal immigration have knocked him down considerably in polls. Mitt Romney has had good performances in debates, but his support has not changed much. Conservatives remain skeptical of his policies in Massachusetts such as “Romneycare” and changing his mind on issues throughout the years.
However, Romney has edged out Perry due to Perry losing support. Recent polls have Mitt Romney moving ahead for the first time since Perry entered the race. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has been rumored to be entering the race for months but has refused repeatedly, making a final official refusal earlier this week.
Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of grassroots support and media attention is businessman Herman Cain. Cain has done well at debates and won the Florida straw poll recently, which gave him enough media attention to close in on Perry and Romney. Cain and Perry have soaked up support for Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who has now dropped way down into the single digits in polls.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has been completely ignored by the media, remains low in the polls despite the fact he is a credible candidate. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, appeals mostly to libertarians but has remained static at around 10 percent in polls. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, former Utah governor Jon Huntsman and former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson never had much support, but it’s worth mentioning all the candidates.
Aside from the primary race, another dynamic in the background is the question of who can beat President Barack Obama. Although it is too early for this to be completely accurate, polls say Obama is most vulnerable to one candidate who can challenge him in historically slam-dunk Democratic states like Connecticut and Pennsylvania: Romney. A Public Policy Polling poll has Romney just two points behind Obama in Connecticut. For reference, Obama beat John McCain by 22 percent in Connecticut in 2008. A Quinnipiac poll also has Romney two percent behind Obama in Pennsylvania, which Obama won by 10 percent in 2008. Nationally, polls show Romney is the biggest challenge to Obama among the Republican field.
The Republican race is far from over and there will be more major shifts, especially if another candidate decides to jump in late. But Cain’s rise after the Florida straw poll really shows how much influence the media has over the race. It’s important for voters to look at the issues and decide which candidate they like best, not which candidate the media has chosen.
I personally think Romney would do the best against Obama, but he has several vulnerabilities as well. Romney has always had difficulty finding strong support among conservatives, and I am unsure whether their disdain for Obama will galvanize them enough. As former President George Bush’s top advisor Karl Rove showed in 2000 and 2004, increasing turnout among the Republican base can work as well as winning over undecided and independent voters.
